Political Reality and the Greening of the President

As the Presidential Election looms, high hopes have been raised across the board for the environmental movement for changing the direction of our public policy on environmental issues, come 2009.  The next President will:

• Recognize the gravity of Global Warming
• Seek to reduce American dependence on foreign oil
• Dramatically increase investment in alternative energy sources and provide incentives for conservation.

We can predict these changes not knowing whether Senator Obama or Senator McCain will prevail, although there are major differences between the policies each has been advocating on the campaign trail.  In office, each candidate will be constrained by his political base.  Obama will not find it easy to wean himself from the Midwestern states who put him in the White House and their pro-ethanol and farm subsidy addictions, including the politics of his home state of Illinois.  Similarly, McCain will find it very difficult to embrace many of the Wildlife and Land conservation causes championed by Democrats.

Progress will be made on fronts that manage to "slip under the radar" in the heat of the election, because the new executive will be far more free to propose initiatives in areas where he and Congress have the least political baggage.

For example, the battle lines are already drawn on expanding offshore drilling in ANWAR and other environmentally sensitive areas, whereas there's room for policy innovation when it comes to increasing investment in geothermal and even in new forms of nuclear power.

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Further, the new President will probably make use of tax incentives for both business and consumers to promote conservation and jump start the shift to solar and wind energy as sources of electricity.  The GOP likes tax credits, because they approach a market oriented solution.  Democrats have less fear using the tax code for social engineering.  Expect legislation in 2009 that moves the ball forward on energy without dramatically shifting policies on resource extraction and wildlife management.

Small changes, widely adopted, can have a meaningful impact on our energy outlook.  A five percent reduction in energy use-- both in industry and in American homes-- would have a far more immediate and long-lasting impact than opening new oil fields off shore.  Let's hope our next President embraces the "politics of the possible" his first 100 days of office, while setting a long term course based on sturdy environmental principles.

Alex Alben is a high tech entrepreneur, living in Seattle.  He ran for Congress in 2004 in Washington State's 8th Congressional District.

Alex Alben